A note from Steve
A buyer I'm helping with a villa search near Sagres got some advice from his mortgage broker this week: start the bank pre-approval now, before you've even chosen a house. It's good advice, and not only because borrowing costs have been creeping up.
When you borrow in Portugal, the bank sends its own valuer, and it lends on the lower of the price and that valuation. If the asking price runs ahead of what homes really sell for, the difference comes out of your cash, not the bank's.
That's why this week's Number matters. It's the official figure for what Lagos homes actually sold for, and last quarter it went down. Before anyone panics, read the context.
Steve
Lagos at a Glance
This week | Change | |
|---|---|---|
Median sale price (INE) | €3,949/m² | ▲ 2.4% · 12m to Q2, latest |
Asking price (idealista) | €4,729/m² | = flat · Sep, latest |
Homes for sale | 2,067 | = flat · vs last week |
12-month Euribor | 3.26% | ▲ 0.02 pts · vs last week |
£1 in euros | €1.19 | = flat · vs last week |
$1 in euros | €0.90 | ▲ 0.9% · vs last week |
Sources: INE, Idealista, Euribor (EMMI), ECB.
Real sale prices in Lagos are rising gently, and asking prices still sit well above them. Negotiate from the sold figure.
The Number
−4.3%
How much the median sale price of homes in Lagos fell between the first and second quarters of 2026, from €4,091/m² to €3,917/m² (INE). Compared with a year earlier, it's still up 6.9%.
Should you be worried? I don't think so. Lagos sells around 225 homes a quarter, so one quarter's median moves with whatever happened to sell: a few big villas one quarter, more flats the next. It has happened before. Exactly a year ago, prices fell 4.7% between Q1 and Q2 2025, and by the end of that year Lagos was at a new high. This is the seventh quarterly dip since 2019, and each time prices went on to new highs. The steadier 12-month figure is still climbing: €3,949/m², up from €3,855.
What I'd do with this: if you're buying, a soft quarter is a reason to negotiate firmly, not to wait for a crash. Ask for recent sold prices on the same street or development and build your offer from those, not from the asking price. If you own, don't cut your price in a panic. Watch the next two quarters: two dips in a row would be a different story. And remember, history is a guide, not a promise.
Sources: INE, local house price statistics, Q1 2019 to Q2 2026, published 23 October 2026. Quarterly figures are single-quarter medians; the 12-month figure is the rolling median. General market commentary, not financial advice.
Listing of the week
Steve's Tip
Keep every building invoice, in your own name.
When you sell a home in Portugal, capital gains tax is worked out after costs. Improvement works done in the 12 years before the sale can be deducted, but only if you can prove them, and in practice that means proper invoices (faturas) with your NIF on them. A cash job with no invoice counts for nothing. Keep your purchase paperwork too: IMT, stamp duty, notary and lawyer. Start a folder the day you get the keys.
General information, not legal or tax advice.
Also this week on the blog: Do Foreigners Pay More for Property in the Algarve? What the 2026 Data Says →
Know someone who keeps talking about the Algarve?
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