A note from Steve
A Dutch buyer I'm working with turned down a Meia Praia apartment on Wednesday. Too expensive for what it is, he said, and he'd rather be in Luz anyway. The day before, another buyer passed on a house near Luz because it simply wasn't good enough. Neither of them is in a hurry, and September's numbers explain why.
Official figures show home sales in the Algarve fell 12.4% in the April to June quarter, one of the steepest drops in the country. Prices haven't fallen with them. What has changed is who holds the stronger hand when a property is priced too high. If you're buying, you can afford to say no. The full picture is below.
Steve
Lagos at a Glance
This week | Change | |
|---|---|---|
Median sale price (INE) | €3,855/m² | = flat · Q1 2026, latest |
Asking price (idealista) | €4,655/m² | = flat · Aug, latest |
Homes for sale | 2,012 | ▲ 0.9% · vs last week |
12-month Euribor | 3.36% | ▲ 0.02 pts · vs last week |
£1 in euros | €1.17 | ▲ 0.1% · vs last week |
$1 in euros | €0.88 | ▲ 0.3% · vs last week |
Sources: INE, Idealista, Euribor (EMMI), Pound Sterling Live.
Listings keep creeping up and borrowing keeps getting dearer. Nothing dramatic, but both point the same way: buyers have time.
State of the Market · September 2026
−12.4% · Algarve home sales, April to June, vs a year earlier. The second-steepest fall of any region after Madeira, and one of only two regions where the total value traded also fell. Fewer deals, not a price crash.
+16.5% · House prices across Portugal, Q2 2026, vs a year earlier. Still rising fast, but slowing for a second quarter in a row.
4.7% · Share of Portuguese home sales that went to non-residents, Q2. 1,890 homes, down 10.3% on a year ago. The ones who did buy spent more: €421,166 on average, up 7.6%.
2.65% · ECB main rate after the 10 September hike. The second increase this year. The next decision is on 29 October.
What I'd do with this: If you're buying, this is the most room you've had in two years. Fewer people are chasing the same houses, especially from abroad, so take the second viewing, ask for the paperwork early, and make an offer based on what you've seen rather than on the asking price. If you're financing, rates are moving the other way, so get your mortgage terms in writing before you fall for anything.
If you own here and you're thinking of selling next spring, price for the market we actually have. A well-priced house in Lagos still sells. An optimistic one now waits.
Sources: INE, Q2 2026 house price index and transactions, via The Portugal News/Lusa, 22 and 24 September 2026; ECB Governing Council decision, 10 September 2026. General market commentary, not investment, tax or financial advice.
Listing of the week
Steve's Tip
Fix your exchange rate when you sign, not when you complete.
There are often two or three months between the promissory contract (CPCV) and the deed. Your euro price is fixed the day you sign. Your cost in pounds or dollars isn't. In September alone, sterling moved enough to change the price of a €500,000 home by about £15,000. A currency specialist can lock today's rate for your completion date with a forward contract, usually for a small deposit. Ask before you sign the CPCV, not after.
General information, not financial advice.
Also this week on the blog: How to Choose an Estate Agent in Lagos, Portugal (and What a Buyer's Agent Actually Does) →
Know someone eyeing the Algarve?
If a friend has been talking about Lagos for years, this autumn is a good time for them to start looking, and this email is an easy way in. Forward it to them. Most of the people I work with came to me through someone they already trusted.
If your introduction turns into a purchase, I pay you 10% of my net commission at completion. And if they're looking somewhere other than Portugal, I can connect them with a vetted eXp agent where they are, and the same thank-you applies.